Market Update: April 2026

New Zealand’s housing market is settled right now: prices are below their 2021 peak, FOMO has all but evaporated, and buyers have more time, more choice, and more negotiating power than they have enjoyed in years. And yet, according to the latest data, the people in the best position to act are largely sitting on their hands.

This is, by almost every measure, the strongest buyer’s market since the 2024 recession.

The market according to agents

Independent economist Tony Alexander surveys around 400 real estate agents each month through his NZHL-sponsored survey.

The April results highlight growing uncertainty and buyer pullback. FOMO (fear of missing out) – the force that drove much of the 2021–22 frenzy – has largely disappeared. Just 8% of agents now report FOMO among buyers, down from 13% a month ago and 26% in December.

On prices, the swing has been sharper: a net 27% of agents now say prices are falling in their area, compared to a net 21% saying prices were rising just four months ago.

Blame the Iran conflict. Since the US entered the war in late February, job confidence has deteriorated and interest rate anxiety has spiked again. Alexander describes the current conditions as the strongest buyer’s market since the recession of 2024.

In Alexander’s separate survey of around 200 existing investors, a record 38% say they plan to sell their properties, while just 12% are looking to buy. That is the highest net selling intention Alexander has recorded. The pattern is not uniform, though, with professional long-term investors who have built positive cashflow portfolios over years staying put. It is the part-timers – the mum-and-dad landlords who entered during the boom – who are looking for the exit.

Regional divergence deepens

The OneRoof-Valocity March quarter data confirms a market that is moving in very different directions depending on where you look.

The South Island is the story, with Canterbury, Otago, and the West Coast all recording new peaks in average property values during Q1. Dunedin led the major metros, with average values rising 3.5% ($23,000) over the quarter to $686,000. Southland was the country’s strongest region, up 2.8%. Invercargill, Rotorua, and Hamilton also recorded growth.

Auckland and Wellington are a different conversation. Auckland’s active listings are running 10–15% higher than a year ago, and nearly a third of listed properties in the city have sat unsettled for five months or longer. Almost half of all national residential listings have been on the market for more than 75 days, a bloat concentrated in the townhouse-heavy suburbs of Manukau and Waitākere.

ANZ has revised its 2026 national house price forecast to a 2% fall, down from an earlier 5% growth prediction, citing the oil shock from the Middle East conflict and rising wholesale interest rates. The bank’s rule of thumb remains: the further you get from Auckland and Wellington, the better the market looks.

Wellington continues to carry the effects of public sector job losses, plus council rates and insurance costs that are among the highest increases in the country.

The case for buying now

Prices are well below their 2021 peak, seller intentions are high, competition from other buyers is low, and the long-run case for residential property in New Zealand has not changed.

While national house prices have recovered 3.58% since bottoming out in May 2023, according to figures published by Opes Partners, they remain around 17–22% below peak depending on the region.

Properties are priced more realistically than they have been in years and yet auction clearance rates have dropped and days-to-sell have blown out, offering negotiating leverage for buyers.

How long will these conditions last? History is consistent on this point: by the time a recovery is obvious enough to feel safe, the window has already narrowed. As one property market analyst put it recently, property markets rarely send out invitations when conditions are about to improve.

Sales volumes hint of what’s to come: in the 12 months to March 2026, New Zealand saw 80,096 property sales – up more than 21,000 from the bottom of the market.

The small investor exit and what it means

The record sell intentions among mum-and-dad landlords deserve more attention than they are getting. They’re spooked on several fronts, including rising running costs, elevated concerns about tenant quality, job security, and interest rates.

Alexander is explicit that this is structural, not just cyclical. In a recent analysis, he outlined 16 reasons why small investor demand is falling in ways that are unlikely to simply reverse when uncertainty lifts. Tax complexity, compliance costs, and a rental market that no longer delivers easy income are all part of the picture.

For serious investors, this dynamic creates opportunity: properties coming to market from reluctant sellers who entered during the boom and are now exiting under pressure. This is why exit data shouldn’t be read as a one-way signal. Cotality and RNZ have both noted that buying activity continues, albeit with more measured intent than the post-Covid surge. The investors still entering the market are doing so with a longer horizon and a harder look at cashflow, which is exactly the mindset that has always produced durable returns in residential property.

What banks are saying

The bank forecasts that opened 2026 with predictions of 5–7% growth have been revised. ANZ now expects a 2% national price fall. The shift reflects the Middle East conflict, energy price pressures, and what appears to be an earlier-than-expected OCR tightening cycle.

The RBNZ’s April Monetary Policy Review signalled OCR increases are coming later this year. The timing depends heavily on how quickly oil price pressures flow through to domestic inflation. Mortgage rates have already started moving higher in response to wholesale rate shifts, even before any OCR move.

For borrowers and investors, that makes the current window relevant. Rates that looked like a floor a few months ago may turn out to have been the bottom of this cycle. Will the current conditions look the same in six months time? Unlikely.

Talk to the team at Goodwins about what the current market means for your portfolio or your next purchase. Call us on 0800 GOODWINS.