What’s Coming in 2026

House prices barely moved last year, but experts are predicting an uptick for 2026. 

2025 in Review 

National property values fell by 1% over 2025, with the median sitting at $808,430 by year’s end, according to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic). That’s 17.6% below the early 2022 peak. 

Auckland and Wellington have been hit harder than most, with median property values dropping by 2.6% and 2% over the year, respectively. Both cities are now sitting more than 20% below their peak values. 

The South Island was a different story entirely. Christchurch’s median property value climbed 2.6% in 2025, and Southland hit record median values in December, with districts across the region reaching new peaks. 

Big Banks Say Growth Is on the Horizon 

The major forecasters agree on direction, if not the exact numbers. 

Kiwibank’s bullish, predicting 5% to 7% growth nationally, settling on 6% as their central forecast. ASB expects “a slight pickup but not a dramatic boom.” Westpac predicts 5.4% annual growth, which they describe as “pretty modest.” ANZ is forecasting around 5%. 

Cotality is cautiously optimistic with a 5% national forecast. “The recovering economy should see property values rise over the next 12 months, but it may only be a modest 5% or so,” chief economist Kelvin Davidson said. 

Even Treasury’s getting in on the forecasting game. Their December Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows they’ve revised down their 2026 expectations significantly. Where they predicted 5.6% growth in the May Budget, they’re now calling for just 1.9% in the year ending 30 June 2026. 

But Treasury’s looking beyond 2026 too. They forecast 6.6% growth in 2027, then 7% in 2028 — their highest predicted annual rate in the entire forecast period through 2030.

What’s Driving the Recovery — and What’s Holding It Back 

Interest rates are down, the economy’s recovering, and full interest deductibility for residential investment properties has returned. The OCR has dropped from 4.25% to 2.25% over the past year, and debt-backed investors are returning. 

On the flipside, high listings, employment uncertainty, and election-year nerves are making people cautious. Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr noted there are “a lot of nerves around the election, particularly around a capital gains tax.” 

ASB’s Nick Tuffley pointed out the supply dynamic clearly:
“We’re still consenting a fair amount, and even still building a fair amount of homes, at a time when population growth has slowed rapidly.”

Auckland’s Slow Road Back 

Auckland landlords hoping for a quick uplift will need patience. The city’s median house price in December was $1,047,044 — still more than 20% below its November 2021 peak. 

Research from OneRoof suggests Auckland won’t return to post-Covid highs until late 2028. That’s a long recovery window compared to provincial markets. 

On the brighter side, Auckland’s finally approaching something resembling affordability for buyers who were locked out during the boom. First-home buyers taking advantage are the dominant force in the market. 

Regional Winners 

Christchurch is nearly back to its post-Covid peak, with December’s median at $683,360. The city’s clawed back almost all its losses and could hit new highs within months. 

Queenstown-Lakes and Otago have already recovered completely and hit new record values. The wealthy enclaves benefited from high-end demand and overseas interest that never really dried up. 

Southland’s districts hit record median values in December, including Invercargill at $520,464. The region’s affordability and solid agricultural sector kept prices climbing even when the rest of the country stalled. 

Other strong performers include Tauranga (median of $935,174) and Dunedin ($612,171). 

Wellington’s Struggle Continues 

Wellington remains the weakest major market. The city’s median sat at $785,790 in December, and OneRoof’s research suggests the capital won’t return to its peak until 2031. 

Public sector job cuts hammered confidence. Landlords are competing against oversupply, and buyers know they have the upper hand. More than 50% of Wellington listings dropped their asking prices in early 2025 just to get deals done. 

The numbers are stark: Wellington City’s average property value dropped 3.6% in 2025 and sits at its lowest level since Covid struck. 

Landlords and Investors — This Could Be Your Year 

Modest growth forecasts create breathing room rather than buying pressure. Prices aren’t going to sprint away from you, but they’re not collapsing either. 

For investors who’ve been on the sidelines, 2026 might be the year to act. You’re buying closer to the bottom than the top, interest deductibility is back, and yields are more attractive than they’ve been in years. Rental growth has slowed, but property fundamentals remain solid. 

For existing landlords, patience pays. We’re not seeing the 20%+ annual gains of the boom years, but steady 5–7% growth compounds nicely over time. The bigger win might be the return of market stability that lets you plan, budget, and invest with confidence. 

Regional investing deserves serious consideration. While Auckland gets the headlines, places like Christchurch, Tauranga, and provincial centres are showing stronger momentum and better affordability metrics. 

Modest Growth Is Better for the Market Than Boom–Bust Cycles 

Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she’s interested in “moderate” house price growth and ensuring affordable housing for young New Zealanders. That’s the kind of stability that lets the market function properly — rather than lurching between extremes. 

Treasury noted that lower interest rates and recovering net migration should lift the housing market across the forecast period and support household wealth growth. They’re also seeing residential investment pick up as house prices rise and more people need homes. 

The forecasts all point in the same direction: up, but not dramatically. After three years of uncertainty, that’s not a bad place to be. 

Whether you’re looking to buy your next investment property, or build a portfolio strategy for the year ahead, the Goodwins team has the local knowledge and investment expertise to help you make the right moves. Call 0800 GOODWINS.