Time to pounce?

Two-thirds of Kiwis think now’s a prime time to buy property. With mortgage rates dropping, record-high listings, and prices stabilising after a multi-year slide, the stars might be aligning for property investors. But Trump’s tariffs and rental market challenges mean this “perfect storm” comes with a few lightning bolts.

Vibe shift
According to a recent Trade Me Property survey, a whopping 61% of Kiwis believe now is the right time to buy property – up from 53% in October last year. That’s the highest confidence level we’ve seen in two years.
When nearly two-thirds of property watchers are giving the thumbs up, it’s worth paying attention.

Three reasons the market is heating up

1. Interest rate rollercoaster is on a dip
   Remember those eye-watering 7%+ mortgage rates? They’re yesterday’s nightmare. The Reserve Bank has been cutting the OCR like it’s going out of style – down 175 basis points since August last year, to 3.50% as of April 2025.
   The average one-year fixed rate has dropped to around 5.31%, down from 7.5% in January 2024. That’s a saving of thousands per year on your average Auckland mortgage. Westpac economists think we’ll see the OCR bottom out at around 3% by July, with most mortgage rates settling between 4.5-5% by year’s end.
   Your borrowing power just got a boost, and mortgage costs won’t eat up your brunch budget as they once did.

2. Supply through the roof
   For years, “lack of supply” was the broken record of NZ property. Now we’re swimming in listings – the highest in a decade, according to Trade Me.
   Total listings nationwide are hovering around 44,000, up 7% from last year. That means more choice, less FOMO, and more leverage to negotiate a killer deal.

3. Prices have stabilised (finally)
   After their dramatic post-COVID descent, property prices appear to have found their sea legs. The nationwide average property value sits at $970,000, according to OneRoof-Valocity’s House Value Index – unchanged since January.
   Remember that prices dropped nearly 18% from their 2021 peak before bottoming out in May 2023. Since then, there’s been a modest 3.33% recovery – nothing to spark panic buying, but enough to suggest the free-fall is over.

The Trump tariff wild card
Just when you thought the economic story was straightforward, enter Donald Trump with his “Liberation Day” tariffs, slapping a 10% tax on New Zealand exports to the US.
While the direct impact is estimated at a manageable NZ$900 million (or 0.2% of GDP), the indirect effects could be more significant. OCR rate cuts will cushion the blow, but there’s still uncertainty about how global trade tensions will play out.
As Finance Minister Nicola Willis put it, the tariffs make New Zealand’s economic recovery “more difficult” by potentially dampening demand for our exports globally.

Regional performances are all over the map
Not all regions are equal in this property rebound. While Queenstown-Lakes saw property values rise 2.2% in the last quarter, Wellington City dropped 3.7% as public sector job cuts continue to bite.
Auckland’s performance has been meh, at best, with values dipping 0.5% in the three months to the end of April. But don’t sleep on the smaller markets – Tasman grew 3%, while Marlborough, Gisborne, Southland, and West Coast all showed modest gains.

The rental market headache
For investors, the rental market isn’t exactly screaming opportunity. Rents have increased only 1% in the year to November on the Stats NZ measure, well below the long-term average of 3.2%.
Finding quality tenants has become challenging in some areas, with a notable slowdown in net migration adding pressure. And just to keep things spicy, insurance costs for landlords have risen too.

So, should you buy now?
If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, there are compelling reasons to get in the game:

1. Mortgage rates are falling and likely to settle at around 4.5-5% – far better than recent years, though not quite at pandemic lows.

2. You’ve got negotiating power with record-high listings giving buyers the upper hand.

3. Price growth is expected – a Reuters poll predicts house prices in New Zealand will rise 5% this year and 6% in 2026.

4. FOMO hasn’t kicked in yet – but with confidence rising, the buyer’s market window could be closing by spring.

The catch: Economic uncertainty from global trade tensions, regional variations in performance, and challenges in the rental market.

Key takeaway
In classic Kiwi style, we’re looking at a “yeah, nah, yeah” situation. Yeah, conditions are favouring buyers more than they have in years. Nah, we’re not seeing the bargain-basement prices some hoped for after the rate hikes. But yeah, if you’ve got stable income and a deposit ready, it’s probably as good a time as any to make your move.
For investors specifically, the lower interest rates are a major plus, but be strategic about where and what you buy – those cash flow calculations need extra scrutiny with rental growth stagnating.
As one economist described it, 2025 will likely see a “modest/slow upturn in house sales and property values.” Not exactly a gold rush, but perhaps a golden opportunity for those prepared to play the long game.

Choices abound for home buyers. Sellers must up their marketing game in the current climate. Call 0800 GOODWINS to learn how we can deliver a better bang for your marketing buck.