Two million homes and counting.

Auckland’s housing capacity is jumping from around 900,000 homes to approximately two million homes under new rules.

At an extraordinary Policy and Planning Committee meeting held last week, councillors voted to withdraw Plan Change 78 (PC78) and instead proceed with a replacement plan (PC120).

Now it goes to public consultation, beginning on November 3 and closing on December 19. The whole process will take about 18 months, meaning results won’t be known before the general election.

The tale of two plans: PC78 vs. the new kid on the block, PC120

Plan Change 78 (PC78) – now withdrawn

  • Widespread housing density, enabling three homes of three storeys across most of urban Auckland.

  • Five- to seven-storey buildings around city centres, town centres, and metropolitan centres like Newmarket, Manukau, and Takapuna.

  • Widespread three-storey medium-density housing across almost every residential site in Auckland, including areas with poor access to public transport.

The replacement plan PC120 – targeted density

  • More focused approach, enabling buildings of up to six, 10, and 15 storeys around the city centre, metro centres, and near fast and frequent public transport.

  • Twenty-four of Auckland’s main roads with frequent bus routes will allow for more terraced housing and apartments — generally around 200m back from the road.

  • Greater focus on building homes in safer, well-connected places, near town centres and major transport infrastructure.

The flood that changed everything

Auckland’s 2023 floods were a planning wake-up call. The problem with PC78 was that it prohibited the council from applying restrictive zoning in areas with severe natural hazard risks. Council planners wanted stronger rules to steer development away from areas with a high risk of flooding, coastal erosion, and other natural hazards.

If your property is in a flood-prone area, the replacement plan could significantly limit development potential. But if you’re near quality transport or town centres, you might have just won the zoning lottery.

Potential winners and losers

Winners:

  • Transport-adjacent properties: Government requires Auckland to allow for greater density around key City Rail Link stations such as Mount Eden, Kingsland, and Morningside.

  • Town centre proximity: Areas around metropolitan centres and frequent transport routes gain significant up-zoning potential.

  • Well-connected, safe areas: The replacement plan focuses on density where infrastructure can handle it.

Losers:

  • Flood-prone areas: Some areas will be down-zoned, and any building in a hazard-risk area will face a stricter risk assessment.

  • Isolated properties: Areas with poor transport access lose out under the focused approach.

  • Special character areas: Most changes to special character were already made in 2022 under Plan Change 78.

Auckland Transport and Watercare have advised that the focused approach of the replacement plan change PC120 is likely to have benefits over PC78 in terms of planning and delivering transport and water infrastructure.

Don’t get too excited about the two-million figure

Housing capacity is the maximum number of homes that could be built if every site in Auckland was fully developed under the council’s planning rules. Extra capacity beyond anticipated population growth is deliberate to give developers plenty of choice.

In reality, market demand, infrastructure constraints, and development economics will determine actual building rates. Remember that 82% of new homes are built in existing urban areas, showing that market demand is strongest near jobs, shops, public transport, and existing infrastructure.

In the meantime, developers would be wise to identify which properties are near transport hubs versus flood-prone areas and to research upcoming transport and infrastructure projects.

  • Focus on areas within walking distance of quality public transport.

  • Avoid or exit flood-prone properties that could face down-zoning.

  • Bear in mind that there will be a greater focus on enabling homes in safer, well-connected areas near jobs, shops, services, and public transport.

  • The council will be looking to get the best return on public investment, including the $5.5 billion invested in the City Rail Link.

Location has always mattered, but it’s about to matter more than ever. The days of assuming any residential land will get density uplifts are over. The future belongs to well-connected, safe locations near quality infrastructure, with significant new opportunities for density and higher-value use in well-located areas. Stronger hazard protections will limit development in high-risk flood zones.

Auckland is betting its future on public transport, town centres, and climate resilience. Whether that bet pays off will determine not just property values but also how liveable the city remains as it grows.

Property investment requires cash flow over speculative growth, diversification, and a good knowledge of planning rules. Call 0800 GOODWINS to get our picks on where to place your property investment bets.