House price report: October 2025

Forget the spring bounce. October’s numbers tell a sobering story: three-quarters of suburbs saw property value declines, with Auckland’s average dropping $23,000 to $1.26 million, according to the October OneRoof Report.

Despite falling interest rates, steady inflation, and the traditional spring surge in activity, the housing market continues its retreat. Auckland’s average is now $316,000 below its peak value and back to January 2021 levels.

Welcome to the long, grinding middle of a market correction. Though there are notable exceptions — one being Omaha, New Zealand’s hottest suburb, with property prices soaring by $130,000 in just 90 days, according to OneRoof.

The wealthy beach town’s average property value hit a new high, taking it into the exclusive $3 million club for the first time. Neighbouring Point Wells wasn’t far behind, jumping $72,000 to $2.53 million.

Omaha and Point Wells are outliers, not indicators. They represent the top sliver of the market where wealthy buyers are competing for premium beach homes. The rest of the market? A different story entirely.

Auckland: The slow bleed continues

Auckland suffered the biggest dollar drop, with the $23,000 hit taking the region’s average to $1.26 million. That’s exactly where it was in January 2021, when prices were climbing toward what would become an unsustainable peak.

The pain isn’t evenly distributed. Auckland City recorded a 2.6% quarterly drop, signalling a loss of confidence in the country’s biggest housing market. Other districts fared slightly better but still declined: Franklin, Manukau, North Shore, Papakura, and Waitākere all dropped between 0.9% and 1.4%.

Only Rodney managed to dodge the slump — but that’s not saying much. Growth was zero, not positive.

For context: if you bought an average Auckland property at the peak in late 2021 for roughly $1.58 million, it’s now theoretically worth $1.26 million. That’s a $320,000 paper loss — and October’s numbers suggest the bleeding hasn’t stopped.

The major metros: Mixed signals

Of New Zealand’s seven major metropolitan areas, only one genuinely impressed.

Tauranga was the star performer, with average property values up 1.8% to $1.08 million, driven by big-ticket sales in Mount Maunganui and solid action in more affordable suburbs.

Christchurch and Queenstown-Lakes saw slight gains of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, but these modest lifts barely register as momentum.

On the decline: Dunedin fell 0.9%, Wellington City dropped 1.1%, and Hamilton slid 1.2%.

Wellington Central deserves special mention as the quarter’s biggest annual casualty. The apartment-heavy suburb dropped 13.6% to $457,000, making it one of 10 Wellington suburbs where property values are now lower than they were just before Covid hit.

Oriental Parade, once New Zealand’s most expensive place to buy, has fallen out of the $2 million club entirely. Its average property value now sits at $1.99 million — almost $200,000 below where it was at the start of 2020.

The affordability gains buyers are celebrating

More suburbs are now accessible to buyers who were priced out during the boom. Entry-level properties that seemed impossible three years ago are back within reach for households with decent incomes and deposits.

But improved affordability through falling prices isn’t the same as an attractive buying opportunity. Many potential buyers remain cautious, wondering whether values will fall further or whether economic uncertainty makes homeownership too risky right now.

What’s driving the continued decline?

Interest rates are falling, the Reserve Bank has been cutting, and spring traditionally brings activity. So why are values still dropping?

• Economic uncertainty: Job security concerns, especially in Wellington’s public sector, are keeping buyers cautious. When you’re not certain about your employment, you don’t make the biggest purchase of your life.

• Oversupply in some segments: Auckland has plenty of listings, particularly new townhouse developments. When supply exceeds demand, prices adjust downward.

• Buyer hesitation: Many potential purchasers are waiting to see if values fall further. This becomes self-fulfilling — hesitation means less competition, which forces sellers to drop prices to secure deals.

• The wealth divide: The Omaha effect — where premium coastal and lifestyle properties surge while mainstream suburbs stagnate or fall — illustrates a bifurcated market. Wealthy buyers aren’t mortgage-constrained and will pay for premium locations. Everyone else is grinding through affordability calculations and economic anxiety.

What sellers need to hear (but don’t want to)

If you’re selling in the current market, understand this: your property is worth what someone will actually pay for it today — not what it was valued at in 2021, not what your neighbour got last year, and not what you need it to be worth to avoid a loss.

Price aggressively or prepare for extended days on market. The spring bump isn’t materialising for most sellers. October’s numbers prove that seasonal optimism isn’t enough to overcome economic headwinds.

Presentation matters more than ever. In a buyer’s market, tired properties get punished. Well-maintained homes in good locations are still moving — but only if they’re priced correctly.

What buyers should consider

For first-home buyers with secure incomes and deposits saved, conditions remain favourable. You have choice, negotiating power, and vendors who are increasingly motivated.

Don’t try to time the absolute bottom — you’ll miss it while waiting for confirmation. If a property works for your needs, location, and budget, and you plan to hold for 7–10+ years, short-term value movements matter less than getting into the market.

For investors, the equation is different. Policy changes — including restored interest deductibility and the reduced bright-line test — have improved conditions, but rental yields remain tight in many areas, and tenant demand is softer than in recent years.

Focus on areas with genuine employment growth, infrastructure investment, and strong rental demand fundamentals.

The forecast

The housing market isn’t crashing. But it’s not recovering either — not in the way most homeowners hope.

October’s numbers suggest we’re settling into a prolonged period of modest declines or flat growth, punctuated by pockets of strength in premium locations that don’t represent the broader market.

Banks forecast 5–9% growth for 2025. Based on current trajectories, those predictions look optimistic. We might see some suburbs achieve that — most won’t.

The reality facing most homeowners: modest gains at best over the next few years, with real recovery to peak values likely years away. Some suburbs may never return to 2021 levels in real, inflation-adjusted terms.

The lesson from October

Omaha’s $130,000 quarterly gain represents less than 1% of total suburbs tracked — it’s an outlier. The trend is clear: three-quarters of suburbs fell, Auckland dropped another $23,000, and major metros showed weakness. Only the premium coastal and lifestyle segments bucked the pattern.

This isn’t a market for speculators or market-timers. It’s a market for people with genuine housing needs, realistic expectations, and time horizons measured in years, not months.

The boom is over. The correction continues. And spring 2025 doesn’t change that fundamental reality.

Need guidance on buying or selling in the current market? Call 0800 GOODWINS for honest advice based on October’s actual numbers — not wishful thinking.